Tales from the Deuce: My 2012 Michigan Preview

Head Coach: Brady Hoke; 58-52 (11-2 at Michigan)

2011 Record: 11-2 (6-2 conference)

Returning Starters: 15 (6 offense, 7 defense, P, K)

Overview: What a difference a year makes. Just think about it. This time last year, many Michigan fans wondered whether then-newly installed head football coach Brady Hoke would be up to the task of returning the Wolverines to prominence. On the one hand, Hoke had built a reputation as a program builder with stops at Ball State and San Diego State, respectively. However, this was Michigan; a bigger stage with brighter lights. Could Hoke really do it? Or was he destined to suffer the same fate as his predecessor, Rich Rodriguez? Thankfully things turned out well for the Wolverines in 2011. And it started the day Hoke was named head coach.  After all, he looked like the head football coach at Michigan; heck he even talked like the head football coach at Michigan, saying all the right things. The next 11 months or so proved to be no different.

For starters, Hoke made arguably, the best coaching hire in all of college football last year by luring Greg Mattison away from the Baltimore Ravens of the National Football League. He then proceeded to assemble the 7th ranked recruiting class (according to Rivals.com) in the nation. Then, to top things off, he led Michigan to an 11-win season, culminating with Michigan’s first BCS bowl win in over a decade. So what then, does Hoke have in store for an encore? Good question. The schedule is brutal and they lose key players on the defensive front. Still, the offense should be better, so let’s start there.

Offense: Michigan’s offense will once again be led by senior quarterback Denard Robinson. Although Robinson isn’t the most polished passer to ever wear the maize & blue, he is certainly one of the most electrifying. Indeed, Robinson’s accomplishments have been the stuff of legend. As the Wolverines’ starting quarterback, Robinson has shattered nearly every team, conference or NCAA rushing record for quarterbacks. In addition, observers and coaches alike have remarked that Robinson has continued to improve his skills as a passer, which should improve the efficiency of the offense. He will have help from an experienced offensive line led by junior left tackle Taylor Lewan. Also, expect Michael Schofield to make an impact up front as he moves to a more natural position at the other tackle spot. Tailback Fitzgerald Toussaint returns as Michigan’s leading rusher from 2011, but he may have to sit out a game due to disciplinary reasons. In his stead will be sophomore Thomas Rawls, who- if you believe everything running back coach Fred Jackson says- is the second coming of Tshimanga Biakabutuka.

Where Michigan will struggle is at receiver. Junior Jeremy Gallon, and senior Roy Roundtree return as starters, but neither have the big-play capability that the departed Junior Hemingway brought to the offense. One possible solution to this problem may be the much-ballyhooed conversion of quarterback Devin Gardner to wide receiver. While the internets have been abuzz with Gardner’s progress, it is still an open question as to whether Gardner can provide the deep threat the offense will need in order to punch their ticket to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Title game. Grade: B+

Defense: The coaching change in Ann Arbor had no greater impact on the team than on defense. It is hardly news that Michigan’s defenses under the previous regime were historically dreadful. Thankfully Greg Mattison’s return to Ann Arbor resulted in the Wolverines jumping from 101st to 8th nationally in scoring defense. This year, sophomore linebackers Jake Ryan and Desmond Morgan return, as does sophomore cornerback Blake Countess. Rounding out the back seven are seniors Kenny Demens (ILB) Jordan Kovacs (S), who were 1st and 2nd, respectively, on the team in tackling.

Quite honestly, the only thing stopping the Wolverines from having one of the best defenses in the country is the lack of depth on the defensive line. Without question, the absence of tackles Mike Martin and Ryan Van Bergen will prove to be problematic all season long. Left to fill the void will be senior defensive linemen Will Campbell and Quinton Washington. Combined, these two players have started one game, and they will be replacing two guys that started over 50; not what I would call a recipe for success. Grade: B

Special Teams: This area just might prove to be a strength for the Wolverines. Gone are the days of going for it on 4th & 5 inside the opponent’s 20-yard line due to a well-placed fear that our kicker couldn’t make a 30+yard field goal. Brendan Gibbons made sure of that when he hit a 37-yard field goal to win the Sugar Bowl last January. While Gibbons won’t ever be confused with Ali Haji-Sheikh, he has proved to be reliable. The punting situation is a bit murkier with Hoke recently announcing an open competition between junior Will Hagerup and sophomore Matt Wile. However, Hoke has recently stated that Hagerup will handle punting, so that is a positive. Receiver Gallon will handle punt returns, while sophomore Josh Furman (S) is listed as the kick returner. Expect speedy true freshman Dennis Norfleet to push them both. Grade: B

Final Analysis: It is quite possible that the Wolverines will have a better overall team this year and still have a worse record. For the first time since the Carr era, the Wolverines will field a team with talent, senior leadership at key positions, and continuity in the coaching staff. Unfortunately the schedule is brutal. Last year, the Wolverines’ first five games were at home. This year the Wolverines will begin the season in Dallas against the reigning national champion, Alabama Crimson Tide. And it doesn’t get any easier with road games against Notre Dame, Nebraska and Ohio State. Nevertheless, success for the Wolverines will turn on three things:

  1. Whether Denard Robinson can take the next step as a passer.
  2. Whether the back 7 can compensate for the severe lack of depth and experience on the defensive line.
  3. Whether Devin Gardner can provide some game-breaking ability at wideout.

Prediction: 9-3 (6-2 conference; 2nd place in the legends division) with losses against Alabama, Nebraska and Ohio State.

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One thought on “Tales from the Deuce: My 2012 Michigan Preview

  1. Spot On. I love to talk UM Football and there is little rebuttal needed from this review. I agree with the record, we lose to Alabama and drop 2 of the 3 between Notre Dame /Nebraska /Ohio State. Other big factor I look forward to this year, is if Denard gets more trust from the Offensive coordinator to make read option plays instead of called runs.

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